IMFサーベイを読む
ニュースを見ると、「IMFが復興財源に消費背増税を提示」と言う見出しが躍っています。とりあえず、IMFのサイトに行ってサーベイを確認。
日本: 公的債務の削減と構造改革が不可欠 −IMF健全性調査(IMF)*pdfファイルです
うーむ、たしかに財政規律の話や増税ばかりだなあ。私がチェックしているブログによると、デフレ脱却に追加金融緩和を提示していると、書かれていたが……。次に英語版のサイトへ行ってレポート全文を読んでみる。
Japan: Lower Public Debt, Structural Reforms Critical, says IMF(IMF)*pdfファイルです
一番最初に書かれている重点項目(KEY ISSUUES)を見る。
Growth after the earthquake.
After a sharp contraction in production and private demand, supply constraints are easing and activity has begun to recover. GDP is forecast to decline by 0.7 percent in 2011 before rising by 2.9 percent in 2012. The outlook, however, remains uncertain depending on how quickly supply bottlenecks ease and sentiment recovers.Reconstruction funding and fiscal strategy.
The immediate priority of fiscal policy is to revive growth, but to limit bond issuance and strengthen commitment to fiscal reform, reconstruction spending should be financed by new tax measures. While other tax measures could also be considered, staff recommends a moderate increase in the consumption tax, from 5 percent to 7–8 percent, in 2012 when a cyclical recovery is underway. Long-term reforms to bring down the public debt ratio require a 1 percent of GDP annual reduction in the structural primary deficit over ten years.Ending deflation and safeguarding financial stability.
To ward off deflation risks and support the recovery, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could increase purchases of longer-dated public securities and expand its asset purchase program for private assets. The earthquake poses little immediate risk to financial stability, but policies should protect against risks of a prolonged economic slowdown and higher market volatility given banks’ significant holdings of government bonds and equities.Implementing the growth strategy.
The economic slowdown provides an opportunity to accelerate growth-enhancing structural reforms. The priorities are to boost employment by raising labor participation among the elderly, young, and women, pursue trade liberalization, and promote SME restructuring.Spillovers.
Recent production disruptions have highlighted Japan’s role as a keysupplier to regional production networks. The main potential international spillover, however, is through the public sector. Fiscal consolidation would have long-term benefits for Japan’s partners by reducing tail risks from a disruption in the Japanese government bond market and freeing up domestic savings to help lower global interest rates.
(赤字強調部分は引用者)
なあんだ。赤字の部分だけサーベイに反映させてないんだ。うっかりさんだなー(棒読み)*1
全部のニュースをチェックしていませんが、時事通信社のニュースはデフレ脱却について触れているようです。
