2024: The Productivity Boom is Coming | The Market Monetarist


When I was a younger economist, I harboured more apprehensions about the world approaching its demise – or at least the global economy. Yet, paradoxically, as I’ve aged, my perspective has shifted to increasingly acknowledge the gradual improvement of our world over time.

This blog post is a testament to that sentiment, underlining the need to harbour not just optimism but profound optimism about future growth.

Indeed, like many, I am acutely aware of the current global challenges – the draconian regulatory overreach, widespread lockdowns, school closures, and massive inflationary monetary policies, coupled with evidently unsustainable fiscal policies. These phenomena have been prevalent in both Europe and North America, painting a somewhat grim picture of our present circumstances.


…and into a future marked by renewed economic vitality and technological progress. It’s essential to recognise that despite the apparent parallels with the past, the world of today is fundamentally different, particularly in terms of technological advancements and global interconnectedness.










Novo Nordisk: Boosting the World’s Weightiest Economy

The Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk – now Europe’s largest company measured by stock market capitalization – has significantly impacted the Danish economy and is set to continue doing so. Its influence, however extends beyond Denmark, particularly through its diabetes and weight-loss medications, Ozempic and Wegovy, with potential significant impact on the global economy, especially the American economy.

Obesity, particularly severe obesity, involves enormous healthcare costs. In the United States, the rate of obesity has increased markedly since the 1980s. Now, approximately 40% of the population is obese, leading to stagnation in average life expectancy and making obesity-related diseases like diabetes and heart disease among the leading causes of death.

A Danish study from 2021 showed that healthcare costs for obese individuals are double those for individuals of normal weight, significantly contributing to the national healthcare burden in Denmark. The reduction of severe obesity through medications like Ozempic and Wegovy could provide a substantial economic boost.

Obese individuals are also less productive, more likely to be unemployed, and earn lower wages. This translates into substantial economic impacts, such as higher rates of work absenteeism among severely obese workers compared to their normal-weight counterparts.


Novo Nordisk:世界で最も重い経済を後押し

デンマークの製薬会社Novo Nordiskは、今や株式時価総額でヨーロッパ最大の企業であるが、デンマーク経済に大きな影響を与えており、今後もその影響は続くだろう。しかし、その影響力はデンマーク以外にも及んでおり、特に糖尿病と減量薬であるオゼンピックとウェゴビーを通じて、世界経済、特にアメリカ経済に大きな影響を与える可能性がある。




A reduction in obesity in the U.S. could lead to an improvement in the economy. Halving the number of obese individuals could result in a 2% increase in overall wages and a significant rise in GDP if we assume as numerous studies shows that obese women have salaries 10% lower than normal weight women (corrected to age, education and experience).

While the widespread adoption of weight-loss medication in the U.S. is uncertain, especially considering its cost, the potential impact on the U.S. economy is substantial.


In conclusion, Novo Nordisk’s innovations in diabetes and weight-loss medications hold the potential to significantly influence not just the Danish but the global economy, particularly the U.S. Their potential to reshape consumer behaviors and the broader economic landscape is a development worth close attention from both economists and financial market analysts. This underscores the broader theme of our discussion: the transformative power of technology and medical advancements in shaping our economic future.




結論として、Novo Nordiskの糖尿病と減量薬の革新は、デンマークだけでなく世界経済、特に米国に大きな影響を与える可能性を秘めている。消費者行動とより広範な経済状況を再構築する可能性は、経済学者と金融市場アナリストの両方から細心の注意を払う価値がある。これは、我々の議論のより広範なテーマである、我々の経済的未来を形成する上での技術と医療の進歩の変革力を強調している。